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Sofia (002572): Estimated and expected compact layout at the bottom
Investment thinking: The company’s revenue growth in 2019, investors slightly adjusted the future growth of Sofia, and gradually reflected relatively adequate.We believe that the market is overly pessimistic about the future development of the industry and the company.Real estate sales anchor estimates, completion data affect performance: The growth rate of real estate sales has slowed down and is estimated to have digested to a reasonable range. The completion data next year will gradually improve, and the company’s performance growth is highly certain.The company’s advantage lies in high production efficiency, perfect national layout, breakthrough in product power and brand power. Although the process from wardrobe to cabinet has been tortuous, it has seen profits in the second half of this year.When the industry was in the doldrums, personnel and dealers adjusted gradually, and the company went light in 2020, predicting the bottom and vertical layout. 1. Expected and estimated bottom, improvement in completion brings deterministic performance in Q3. Single-quarter revenue increases by 2 each year.4%, a decrease of about 10% from the previous quarter Q2, and the excess also decreased by 10% in the same proportion. The previous linear expectation was digested, and estimates and expectations returned to the bottom range.At the current market divergence line, pessimists believe that the actual sales volume has peaked, it is estimated that it will encounter breakthrough suppression in the future, the potential of capacity release next year, intensified industry competition, and so on.However, at the same time, we found that smart funds have entered the market initially, and overseas (long-term) funds have been bought in large quantities after the third quarter, and the shareholding ratio in three months is 13.5% increased to 20.5%.We also believe that the company has achieved long-term layout value: 1. It is optimistic that China’s vast consumer market and urbanization rate continue to increase; 2. The company’s brand power and product power are still competitive in the home industry; 3, 13-The 15x evaluation has a sufficiently strong margin of safety; 4. Improved completion data brings certainty to performance. 2. Channels and personnel are actively adjusted. The company’s competitive advantage further enhances the growth rate of the industry, and the company is actively adjusting.Obviously, the company’s early phase of channel elimination and ventilation is not very fast, so dealers often adopt the “shoudian” 成都桑拿网 business strategy, the initiative is weak.However, since this year, the company has proactively adjusted its personnel and organizational structure. Wang Bing succeeded Wang Ye to take full charge of the marketing work. As a result, the former director of European wardrobe marketing, Liu, also came to Sofia to establish a new evaluation system: the dealer ‘s nine-square grid assessmentInstitutions and elimination mechanisms.According to channel research, there are about 80-100 dealers to be eliminated this year, and an active marketing department has been set up to mobilize dealers’ initiative.With the active adjustment of personnel and more refined management, relying on the advantages of owning the brand and manufacturing, the company’s competitive advantage has been further enhanced. 3. The cabinet business starts to 杭州桑拿网 profit, and the increase in the proportion of hardcover rooms is good for the company’s future development. The cabinet business will start to profit in the second half of this year. Although there are twists and turns, the outlook is good, and it will directly contribute to performance next year.In addition, after increasing the proportion of hardcover rooms, we believe that it will be beneficial to wardrobe and cabinet companies with brand advantages.2019?In 2021, the net profit attributable to mothers will exceed 5%, 13%, and 15%, respectively. At present, the corresponding 20-year PE is 14x. It is estimated and expected to bottom out. The growth will resume in 20 years, and the investment rating of “Highly Recommended-A” is maintained. Risk warning: the completion data is less than expected, and the development of multiple categories and channels is lower than expected.